2. Voting trends

The last election saw the Liberal Party record our lowest primary vote and Two-Party Preferred vote in our Party’s history.

While Labor convincingly won the Two-Party Preferred vote, it did so with its second lowest primary vote in its history.

The Liberal Party has also suffered from a significant loss of support across key demographic groups.

The Party has seen a significant decline in support among professional women.

In 2019 the Liberal Party held 23 out of 50 electorates with the highest number of managerial and professional women. We now hold just two.

The Liberal Party now holds just 9 out of 88 metropolitan electorates. (This includes 2 out of 43 inner metro electorates and 7 out of 45 outer metro electorates).

At the 2022 election, the top 15 seats by Chinese ancestry saw a swing against the Liberal Party of 6.6% - roughly double the swing suffered in other seats of 3.7% (on a 2PP basis).

Suburban electorates with high multicultural populations - like Aston, Banks, Bradfield, Bennelong, Chisholm, Deakin, Menzies, Reid and Tangney - account for many of the seats lost by the Party over the last two elections.

There is also a clear trend in Australian politics, where Party affiliation in Australia has been consistently in decline, and Australian politics has become less tribal.

This is illustrated by the recently published Australian Election Study, which has been conducted after every election since 1987.

The Australian Election Study shows the percentage of Australians who “always vote for the same party” more than halving since 1987.

The Australian Election Study shows a concurrent fall in the percentage of “lifetime voting” for both Labor and the Liberal-National parties since 1987.

The Australian Election Study provides a further reality check - that many voters are not as actively engaged in the political process as members of political parties!